So far we’ve had a pretty good January with above average mild temperatures, but will we pay for it in February?
Patch consulted StormCentral, a group of amateur weather forecasters and storm spotters who track weather patterns and storms, including founder Matt Baranowski, a junior at Marist High School.
“The good news is that we are almost half way through winter with only 40-percent more to go,” Matt said.
Can we expect more significant snowfall? Are temperatures going to plunge? Here’s what they said. At the end of the month, we’ll compare the pros against the kids.
"Looking ahead, I see a potential storm shaping up that may affect travel to Indianapolis for the Super Bowl Feb. 3-5. The storm system we are watching is associated with a large dip in jet stream. If the storm were to become a Nor’easter, New York will see a sizable snow. If the storm complex is going to take the European look to it and go through the Ohio Valley, Chicago may be in for it. If the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) does not go negative, the chances for a sizable snow storm for a major eastern city drop considerably.
Follow StormCentral on Facebook.
"After February 10, a potential cold pattern appears to be building. Remember, forecasters have noted a colder pattern taking place due to the negative NAO which has yet to develop this year. Based on my knowledge of past concurrences, climatology, weather patterns and models, I don’t think this pattern will develop. The winter’s roller coaster ride of mild and cold temps will continue well into February. Frequent Alberta Clippers will dump 1-3 inches of snow at least a couple times a week, but a sustained cold pattern of below average temperatures (29 and below) does not appear to take place from now until at least February 10."
“As we look into February, our forecast guidance indicates a pattern change, allowing cold air to spill southward across the central and eastern states from Canada.
“This blast of colder air should erase the early-week widespread warmth over the Midwest and East beginning Friday. This is shown in the graphic below with a sharp dip in the jet stream developing over the East, allowing colder air to pour southward.
"The other question is whether this cold air plunge will be accompanied by any significant snow, particularly in areas that haven't seen much snow this season. For now, the guidance remains nebulous. This could happen anytime from Thursday (Groundhog's Day) through next Monday."
"Mild trend to continue in the tenth least snowy winter on record with 13.7 inches (Dec. 1 through Jan. 28). Above normal temperatures continue (29 and above) with above average precipitation.”